In PVT vs ECZ the winner is... Everyone!

(PVT=parallel vote tabulation, or a statistical projection of results. ECZ=Election Commission of Zambia)

Zambia's a wrap. You've seen a lot of posts from me on this one already, but I'll test your patience with one more sharing the happy ending.

Things were getting tense late last week as the results began to come in. The whole country was clamoring for news in what was an info black hole to the point that riots began breaking out and a handful of people were tragically killed. No one, including the major parties, knew what had transpired, and pressure was building on the elections commission to speed the release of resuts as suspicions mounted that they were dragging out the  counting process. While Zambians are renouned for being chill, peaceful people the grim shadows of Cote D'Ivoire or Libya definitely loomed over us all. In the end, the Election Commission of Zambia did the right thing and recognized the will of the voters in the election of Michael Sata with a surprising (to me) margin of 44%-36% over the incumbant. It's the first time there's been a transfer of power between parties in the country for 20 years, and is a real accomplishment.

A well-run domestic election monitoring mission reminds me a bit of Teddy's aphorism "speak softly but carry a big stick." The Civil Society Elections Coalition made a statement on the conduct of the big vote Tuesday (pretty good, some flaws) but they were absolutely mum on what they knew from their statistical-placed monitors across the country. I would love to have been a fly on the wall at the national results tabulation HQ; I don't know what was going on in the inner chambers, but I'm sure that our partners and their scientific, non-partisan report from respected civil society groups was never far from their mind

You can imagine the pressure on an elections commission with the ability to turn a powerful president out of office. However, as the ECZ deliberated they knew that CSEC was waiting in the wings with a compelling report that would reinforce, or destroy, the credibility of whatever the commission said. With such election monitors able to project with great accuracy the outcome of a vote, it is impossible to for incumbents or election commissioners to simply make the facts of an election disappear. Observers won't stop an election from being stolen - but at least they can help demonstrate that grand theft has taken place.

NDI never takes a position on who should win an election; I remain willfully ignorant of the merits of the respective candidates. However, vast swaths of Lusaka were ecstatic. As the ECZ officially called the race, throngs of thousands flowed screaming, singing, chanting and honking into the streets. And, inevitably, the buzz of Vuvuzelas filled the air.

CSEC's statements on the results are available on their web site.